A few random thoughts at this critical moment before the debate.

1. Tim Kaine was actually quite effective in setting up the post debate spin.  While Pence had good Republican hair and was quite smooth, Kaine succeeded in forcing Pence to either not defend Trump at all, or look ridiculous in stating that Trump had never said what in fact Trump had said, on video no less.
2. Trump is undisciplined.  It was inevitable in this modern world where every cell phone can become a hot mike or in fact a video camera, that a video like Friday’s “grab them by the pussy” would come out.  This is also the pitfall of nominating a first time politician. If Trump had run for elective office before (even if he lost) this would have surfaced back then.  Republican lack of vetting of their own nominee by his primary challengers is coming home to roost.
3. There will likely be more video and audio revelations.  My only question is whether these  revelations are already known to the Clinton campaign or whether they will be spontaneous under the control only of those who hold the tapes.
4. Trump’s only hope for damage mitigation here was a complete apology.  Instead he is attacking Bill Clinton for his prior indiscretions.  This is a poor response; it will not play well with what’s left of the persuadable center.
5. The abandonment of Trump by elected Republicans could lead to a complete collapse at both the Presidential and Congressional (House and Senate) levels.  Yesterday Rep. Heck, running for Senate in Nevada, abandoned Trump and then he (Rep. Heck) was booed at a his own rally.
6. If Clinton defeats Trump by 8 or more percentage points, the House would be in play.
7. Throughout the general election, my prediction has been a Clinton win somewhere between  Obama’s two margins of victory– a 4 to 8 percentage point win.  I’m figuring more like 8 right now.
8. I expect Democrats to take the Senate.  They will probably win nearly all of the close races on election day.
9. While a double digit HRC victory margin is possible, there is also the possibility that voters wanting to make a protest will go to Stein or Johnson, now without fear that Trump could win.  In the latter scenario, I have not thought through the implications for congressional races, but it’s likely not as good for the Democrats as the former scenario.
10.  I don’t think Trump will drop out.  There is no way for Republicans to dump him unless he leaves voluntarily.  Even if does withdraw, there would be no Republican unity behind the “replacement” ticket, most likely with Pence on top.
11. I think we are only talking about the margin of the Clinton victory.  I just can’t see a way for Clinton to lose this election.  She’s’ been in the public eye for so long, I just can’t imagine there is some devastating skeleton that would make her vulnerable to a candidate as weak and flawed as Trump.
12. I expect Clinton to be very prepared for Trump’s attacks at tonight’s debate.
13. I don’t know what to expect from Trump, but it will probably be either bad or terrible for his electoral prospects.  A miracle apology that helps him?  Maybe, but I just don’t see it.