In terms of the bloggers and political commentators I read, this past week, and yesterday in particular, marked a key moment in the race for the Republican nomination.  Many observers including me have been skeptical of Trump’s ability to win the nomination.  In general the the collective thinking was that the rest of the field and the Republican “establishment” would attack Trump, and as other establishment candidates lost momentum and money, the anti-Trump resources and eventually votes would consolidate around just one “establishment” candidate (most likely Rubio, but possibly Bush, Kasich, or Christie).  There’s more to this “The Party Decides” theory, but the above sentence is the gist.

But this past week, Republican organizations and some elected officials stepped up their attacks on Cruz, not Trump.  This comes as a bit of a surprise to me as Trump could be seen as a greater threat to the establishment than Cruz.  The NYT has a great article talking about the split between ideological Republican elements (think National Review), and elected officials and lobbying groups.  The latter, which might be referred to as the governing wing of the R establishment, is attacking Cruz. The former, is attacking Trump.  To my thinking, the net impact is favorable to Trump.  The attacks on Cruz (which include Iowa’s R Governor), will help Trump in Iowa, where Cruz is currently even, or perhaps ahead.  The National Review attack seems feeble to me.  Trump voters are downscale, not NRO readers.

All this increases Trump’s chances of winning Iowa, which in turn increases his chances of winning New Hampshire.  Things could change; perhaps Trump’s weaker ground game in Iowa will moot the power of his strength in the polls.  Perhaps a better last minute attack is in the wings to be unveiled closer to caucus day in Iowa. Perhaps establishment “lane” consolidation is about to happen.  But right now, seems to me that Trump may be the favorite for the R nomination.  Such an interesting race to watch.  I’ll post about the differences between Trump and Cruz later.