So today the FBI announced that the new emails do not impact their earlier conclusion not to recommend prosecution of Clinton.  I always believed this would be the case, I just didn’t know how long it would take the FBI to reach that conclusion.  However, the political damage was most likely already done by last Monday or Tuesday.  I don’t think this reversal will lead to a surge in Clinton’s favor.  It was a wasted 9 days with the focus away from Trump.  And that time away from Trump hurt Clinton’s margin, which might have been more robust but for Comeygate.

Depending which method for averaging polls that you elect to follow, Clinton leads national polling by 2.6 percent (Princeton Election Consortium [PEC] meta-margin of state polls), 2.7 percent (Fivethirtyeight), 2.3 percent (NYT Upshot), 5.2  percent (Huffpost Pollster), 3.9 percent (TPM Polltracker), or 2.2 percent (RealClearPolitics).  Most observers believe Clinton leads by 2 to 3 percent, with exception of Huffpost.  However, there is disagreement regarding the value of a lead in that range.  Nate Silver looks at historical polling errors which average 2 percent and posits that the final result could vary from a virtual tie to a substantial Clinton win.  Accordingly, he thinks Clinton’s chances of victory are about 66 percent.  Others like Sam Wang at PEC see a 2.5 percent lead as more robust, predicting a 99 percent chance of victory.  The NYT Upshot model is in-between at about 84 percent.  My personal hunch is similar to the NYT.

In more recent presidential elections since 2000, the error, if significant, has been in the Democrats favor.  However, in recent non-presidential years, it has been in the Republicans favor.  My hunch is the stronger Clinton ground game,  the fact that younger voters may be harder for pollsters to reach by cell, and that much of Trump’s strength is with less educated white voters (who may not be that serious about voting), suggest Clinton may outperform her final polls by just a bit. Of course I have no way of knowing for sure; that’s just what I think.  And my thinking is largely grounded in my earlier points that the fundamentals of this election favor continuation, rather than change.

For now I will stick with long held prediction that Clinton will win by between 4 and 7.6 percent.  My best guess is in the range of 4 to 5 percent.  I expect Clinton to win the 23 states listed in the Upshot Model totaling 268 electoral votes. In addition, I expect her to win the following swing states: FL, NC, and Nevada.  Probably New Hampshire as well, for a total 322 electoral votes.

I would note that if my hunch is wrong, and the Clinton margin is just 1 or even 2 percentage points, there is a risk that Trump may win the electoral college while losing the popular vote.  One good sign for Clinton is her strength in early voting in Nevada.  This could offset a loss in New Hampshire.  For Trump to win, he must take FL, PA, and Ohio.  Doing so enables his victory but does not guarantee it.  He needs one or two more blue states.

I’ll post again tomorrow night if I have any more insights. I want this election to be over.