So today to the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Gross Domestic Product increased by a healthy 2.9 percent in the 3rd quarter.  Real disposable income grew by 2.2 percent (think of this as inflation adjusted spendable income after taxes).  These are good numbers and reflect the general upward trend in the economy.  President Obama’s approval rating is at 55 percent.  I could add that unemployment and inflation are close to 21st century lows and the S&P 500 is within 2.5 percent of its all-time high.  These numbers all point toward a stay the course, don’t shake things up election.   Not knowing anything about the challenger’s qualifications, numbers like these would indicate a strong likelihood that the incumbent party’s nominee would win the general election.  In many ways the situation is similar to 1988 when GHW Bush, then vice President, succeeded Ronald Reagan.

Depending which polling aggregator you look at, Clinton leads by 4 to 8 percent.  I’ve always expected this election to be somewhere in the range of Obama’s two victories, in the range of 4 to 7.6 percent.  I think a 6 to 8 percent victory margin is my expectation. The third party candidates add some uncertainty, making 4 to 10 reasonable possibilities.  Bottom line, the GDP number was the final confirmation for me.