Just read Josh Marshall. I add very little.  But that won’t stop me from doing some addition.  Josh has a good post of the state of the race.  Link:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-great-is-it-close-debate

Nate Silver’s model has the Clinton likelihood of victory back below 60 percent.  His model uses a combination of state and national polling.  It’s quite sensitive to the latest polling.  Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium uses state polls only.  His model is less sensitive, and he gives Clinton a 73 to 82 percent chance of winning.  I tend to be more with Sam but not necessarily for the same reasons. My reasons for thinking Clinton will win are:

1. Trump never quite pulls ahead; he just gets close. Clinton tends to move back to a lead of about 4 percent.

2. Usually the candidate who has generally led the race most of the time post convention, even if the margin is modest, is the winner.

3. Clinton’s ground game should add a point or two.

4.A majority believes Trump is unfit and unqualified to be President regardless of policy.  Trump’s only chance is to win with a plurality.  I think Clinton has more room to gain from undecided voters or those voting for the third party candidates.  Ed Kilgore has a nice piece noting that many millennials think Clinton may be inevitable, thus comfortable making a 3rd party protest vote. On election eve, voters will know what is at stake.  While some may choose a protest vote, very few voters will do that under the illusion that his or her vote doesn’t  matter.

5. As I have said before, the electorate will get it right one more time.

I agree with Josh Marshall’s closing thought: “My own hunch is that that line separating the two candidates is likely more durable than some suspect. But that’s just my own hunch.”

I am very interested in the debate tomorrow.  I expect that Trump will try to play it conservative by not attacking and just appearing “Presidential” on the same stage.  I don’t think he can do it.  It’s just not his nature.  We shall see.  Oh and Josh Marshall has it all for you at:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-few-thoughts-on-the-debate