Like most all pundits and observers, I believe the Democrats had a much better convention that will allow Hillary to shore up and expand her support.  Trump and the Republicans made several mistakes.  By turning so negative on the state of the country and the world, they forgot to say that they love America.  Moreover, their dark vision of the country is just not consistent with the latest data on crime and the economy.  Finally, Trump saying “I alone” can fix things was big mistake.  An old boss of mine (who worked in politics) used to say there are times for “we” messages and times for “I” messages. But politicians need to be very careful with the “I” messages.  Trump doesn’t know the meaning of careful.

After the Republican convention ended, I believed the Democrats were in a very good position to rebut much of  what had been said.  And indeed they did, with speaker after speaker.  Trump’s focus on “I” left the door open for Hillary to stress the “we” (think it takes a village).  I watched the speeches of both Obama’s, Tim Kaine, and Hillary.  The Obamas were outstanding.  Tim and Hillary were fine.  Hillary did better than I expected.

Perhaps the defining moment may turn out to be the very moving speech of Khazir Khan recounting his muslim son giving his life in service of his men and his country. During his 6 minute speech, Mr. Khan then pressed Trump on his knowledge of the constitution (which of course provides for freedom of religion) and noted that Trump had sacrificed nothing. Trump, unable to control himself, has attacked Khazir and his wife Ghazala.

This is a revealing mistake on so many levels.  It reveals that Trump has no empathy.  It reveals that Trump has no impulse control–he must fight back regardless of who attacked him.  It reveals that he cannot work with political professionals (or advisors of any kind) who would have advised him to either say nothing, or honor the Khan’s sacrifice while softly defending his policies.  It reveals the political stupidity of “all publicity is good publicity.”  Remember, Mr. Khan’s speech was not in prime time.  Not that many Republicans were even aware of the speech.  It was not shown live on FOX.  Now it’s being replayed in both regular and social media. For all these reasons, it reveals why Trump cannot be trusted with the control of nuclear weapons.  Josh Marshall has a complete explanation of Trump’s self-inflicted disaster:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/understanding-the-trump-khan-war

Early post convention polls are moving toward HRC.  I’d wait at least another week or two to draw firm conclusions about exactly where the race stands.  My expectation is that Clinton will move back toward that 4-6 point lead and hold that with some ups and downs over the coming 100 days or so.  But nothing is certain.  In a normal political world, Trump would have now come close to committing political suicide.  But is this a normal world?  Here’s David Brooks with a scary thought:

The Democrats had by far the better of the conventions. But the final and shocking possibility is this: In immediate political terms it may not make a difference.  The Democratic speakers hit doubles, triples and home runs. But the normal rules may no longer apply. The Democrats may have just dominated a game we are no longer playing.

Both conventions featured one grieving parent after another. The fear of violent death is on everybody’s mind — from ISIS, cops, lone sociopaths. The essential contract of society — that if you behave responsibly things will work out — has been severed for many people.

It could be that in this moment of fear, cynicism, anxiety and extreme pessimism, many voters may have decided that civility is a surrender to a rigged system, that optimism is the opiate of the idiots and that humility and gentleness are simply surrendering to the butchers of ISIS. If that’s the case then the throes of a completely new birth are upon us and Trump is a man from the future. If that’s true it’s not just politics that has changed, but the country.

I don’t believe things have changed as much as Mr. Brooks fears.  But probably the only way Trump could win would be if Brooks’ fears turn out to be true.