Blogging is meant to be a medium of frequent short posts.  However, my mind does not work at the pace of the blogoshpere. I ponder ideas for a few days before drawing conclusions. By the time I’ve reached a conclusion worth writing about, new events have taken place, and whatever I was prepared to write about has become dated. I’m not sure my thinking/writing style will ever evolve to make me an effective blogger, but this morning I will attempt to catch up on a lot of topics.

The overarching question on many of my friends’ minds is along the lines of “With Trump being so transparently awful, why isn’t Hillary further ahead in the polls?”  Next question is  along the lines of “Trump can’t win, can he?”  I’ll try to deal with aspects of these questions below.

First, Trump is truly awful.  The two latest bits of awfulness are 1) hosting a convention which is criminalizing political difference and 2) undermining our commitment to NATO allies.  Encouraging shouts of “lock her up” during the convention is truly chilling and un-American.  Only in weak democracies do elected officials, and for that matter voters, fear for their safety and liberty if their party does not prevail. Then, in the midst of this crazy convention, Trump has told the New York Times that aiding the Baltic States is conditioned on their “meeting their obligations to us.”  This is crazy talk. The entire purpose of an alliance is to make clear that members will come to the aid of other members in a military crisis.  Is Trump inviting Russia to invade or pressure the NATO allies in eastern Europe?  What’s with all the Putin bromance?  WTF? These are just the two latest examples of why Trump is so transparently unqualified to be President.

Moving on, why isn’t Hilary further ahead?  Well, in a politically divided United States, each party begins with a base of about 45 percent. There aren’t that many persuadable voters. Even conditions suggestive a large electoral victory do not reveal large polling leads anymore. Kevin Drum has a nice recap of polling in 2008, noting that McCain was ahead of Obama in June and again in early September. Remember, the economy was melting down. The case for change was very strong.  Obama was a great campaigner and speaker. We could just as easily ask, why wasn’t Obama further ahead?  Link to Kevin Drum:

motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/07/no-its-not-astonishing-trump-running-tight-race

Obama went on to win by 7 percentage points, the largest Democratic margin since 1964.  Hilary is not a great politician.  She has neither the charm nor charisma of President Obama or her husband.  She makes unforced errors with the media.  Her speaking tone can be grating.  Nonetheless, her resume as former First Lady, U.S. Senator, and Secretary of State is very strong.  Ultimately I expect that despite her flaws,  voters will see her clearly preferable to Trump.  That’s a key difference between polling and voting.  When a pollster calls, if you have reservations, you can say you are undecided.  In the voting booth, you have to choose, and I expect voters will choose Hillary over Trump by a margin similar to that of Obama in 2008.  (In another post, I hope to talk about how sexism is depressing Hillary’s numbers.)

So can Trump win?  Of course he can in a binary two-party system. Trump begins with a base of about 45 percent, despite his awfulness.  Nate Silver’s model gives him a 40 percent chance of winning, his highest numbers to date. The NYT has a different model giving him just a 25 percent chance.  Betting markets give him a 30 percent chance.  Personally, I believe Trump’s chances are no better than 30 percent.  But 30 percent is very scary.

So what’s going to happen?  I think Hillary will slowly pull away from Trump in the polls, but will never have a consistent lead of more than 5 or 6 percentage points, and might even experience several dips where her lead is minimal.  Ultimately, I expect that her final margin of victory will be by about 7 percentage points.  Why do I believe this? The R Convention has not achieved the typical goal of unifying the party or showcasing a candidate’s ability to lead and effectively message his or her goals. I haven’t watched much of the convention, but seeing Ted Cruz tell the delegates to vote their conscience rather than endorse Trump, followed by audible booing, demonstrates there is no unity in Republican land.

Next, I believe the Democratic Convention will demonstrate unity.  Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, President Obama and former President Clinton will present a strong unified message in favor of Hillary Clinton as our next President.  Speakers will be well positioned to rebut much of what has been said at the Republican Convention.  Criminalizing political different is not the American way.  Conditions are good by historical standards. Inflation, unemployment, and crime rates are all low.  Job growth under Obama far outpaced that of George Bush. The case for stay the course is strong, and I expect the Democrats to make that case effectively.  The few persuadable voters and skeptical Bernie supporters will begin moving toward Hillary.

Finally, any analysis of the 2016 election requires looking at 2012. Since 2012, the electorate has gotten less white and younger.  Trump has to improve on Romney’s numbers with non-white and younger voters. There is no evidence in the polling that he has done so.

I could go on about Hillary raising more money and having a stronger ground game (neither of which are reflected in current polling). I could also add that stories of individuals screwed over by Trump business deals will make there way into the campaign narrate.   The final plus for Hillary is what I will call the “condemnation phase” of the campaign.  In early October, major newspaper editorials will be framing endorsements of Hillary Clinton with extreme denunciations of everything Trump stands for personally and politically.  These statements will be echoed in Hillary’s advertising.  And even some conservatives (George Will, Ross Douthat, David Frum) will join in the denunciation of Trump.

So why do I worry?  Why don’t I think Hillary’s chances are closer to 90 percent?  Because everything I’v written above is from a historical perspective.  Could there be a moment where years of Republican obstruction have so decayed confidence in government’s ability to do anything that the electorate decides to go in a totally different direction, moving toward authoritarianism? Could fear of terrorism push the electorate over the edge?  I don’t think so, but can’t rule it out.  I’ll close with a quote from Josh Marshall:

This is Trump. His convention would be his presidency – entertaining and hilarious if he weren’t also a live wire against the fumy gasoline can set against our national home. It is quite literally a terrifying prospect. He’s quite likely to lose his quest for the presidency. But he might not. He’s that close to the unimaginable. And he’s brought almost an entire political party along with him. We will be blessed if we can escape this with no more harm.