Most readers know that I am a big fan of Nate Silver and his 538 website.  He does great analytical work in a transparent and thoughtful manner.  I’ve been waiting for his Presidential Election Model this year.  Well, now it’s here. Link:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=navlink

It currently gives Hillary a 78 percent chance of winning in November.  That sounds about right to me. Hillary is a strong favorite despite her rather high unfavorables. But in a two-party system, there is always a chance that even a nominee as weak and flawed as Trump could win.  22 percent sounds about right for that.

A few notes on Nate’s model.

One thing that surprised me was that Hillary has a greater chance of winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college (4.2 percent) than Trump doing the same (0.9 percent).  This was not the case in 2012.  Under uniform swing assumptions, Obama could have one the electoral college in 2012 with less than a majority of the popular vote. I hope Nate will explain why.  My hunch is that Trump’s weakness with Latino voters means he is wasting less votes in places like Texas and Arizona. Perhaps, if he is able to eek out wins in PA, OH, and FL, he might be able to win the electoral college while Hillary wastes votes in NY, CA, and IL.

Nate’s model give Hillary a 31 percent chance of a double digit victory, which would be the largest winning margin for a Democrat since LBJ.  The chance of a Trump landslide is just 2 percent.

My own hunch is that a solid Clinton win, at least the size of the Obama 7 point margin in 2008, is the most likely outcome.  Here are ten reasons why I think Clinton will win by a comfortable margin.

1. Trump has no experience and his brash, racist, sexist statements offend a majority of the electorate.
2. His inexperience and out of control personality make it difficult for persuadable voters to see him as someone who could be trusted in a crisis. (A crisis would normally be helpful to the out-party candidate, but that’s probably not the case this year–I’m thinking of Orlando.)
3. Trump’s campaign has poor fundraising.
4. Trump’s organization is poor.
5. Hillary fundraising and organization are strong.  She inherits some of this from Obama.
6. President Obama’s approval rating is above 50 percent and rising.
7. President Obama will campaign for Hillary. So will other progressives like Elizabeth Warren.
8. The overall direction of the country is okay.  Hillary running as Obama’s successor is the right fit for this election.
9. Despite her unfavorable polling, the Clintons are successful politicians and ultimately persuadable voters will trust Hillary (along with Bill) to run the country.
10. There are some strong Republican voters with manners and decency that will not be able to bring themselves to vote for Trump.  (I’m thinking married Republican suburban women who do not want their children to see Trump as their President.  Also a few ideological purists like David Frum or George Will.)

All of the above, along with Nate’s model, say that Hillary will win comfortably.  But I’m not smug.  Things can change. Like me, Kevin Drum thinks Hillary will win. But he sees (and I see as well) how Trump could win:

“In Britain, cultural resentments won out over stability. Can Donald Trump create the same result here?”

Sure. The odds may be against it, but of course Trump can win in November. Let’s set the stage with the observation that both candidates start with about 45 percent support. Like it or not, that’s where we are right now. Republicans could nominate Donald Duck and he’d start off with 45 percent support. Ditto for Democrats. That said, here’s the most likely path to a Trump victory:

1. Trump gets smart and dials back the cretinism a bit. It wouldn’t take long for the #NeverTrumpers to fall in line. The key tells would be statements like “He seems to be finally growing into his role,” or “He’s right that we can’t afford three or four Hillary nominees to the Supreme Court.” A few weeks after you hear stuff like this, #NeverTrump will be relegated to the ash heap of history.
2. Bernie Sanders remains bitter and fails to rally his troops, who remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is a corrupt, corporate shill. So they stay home in a funk instead of working to defeat Trump.
3. The media continues its practice of giving Trump air time to spread wild lies whenever he wants. This is fairly likely since they still haven’t internalized the corollary to the Lesley Stahl lesson: fact checks don’t matter. Only the loud, confident assertion matters.
4. Hillary’s email troubles don’t get resolved and continue to dog her throughout the campaign.

None of this relies on any kind of big external event, like a terrorist attack or an economic plunge. It just relies on Trump getting a little smarter and then a few things going his way. It could happen here.

As Kevin and Nate would say, the odds are against a Trump victory.  But it’s still possible.