Been meaning to blog about many things. Sorry for talking too long. Here’s a few questions and even fewer answers. 1. Why do most Americans feel the country is headed in the wrong direction when in fact the nation is at peace and prosperity is rebuilding? 2. Why Trump’s unanticipated dominance of the Republican primary process is unlikely to repeat itself in the general election. 3. What do Trump’s supporter think will improve if he gets into office?
On number 1, Mrs. Center Left and I have talked a great deal. We both believe it’s a sense of lack of security. Twenty or thirty years ago most people believed that the company they were working for would be around for decades, even if they themselves moved onto something different. That’s much less the case today. Blockbuster Video gave way to Netflix and Red Box. Will those give way to Amazon? Outside of government, the life cycle of jobs is now much shorter. Stated differently, twenty or thirty years ago a good job and house by the time you were in your mid thirties offered a stronger sense of security that it does today. We also think that social media tends to reinforce the mistaken view that most people are happy, thus creating a weird kind of envy that can lead to pessimism. Finally terrorism, though extremely rare, is very unsettling, again hurting our sense of security.
Greg Easterbrook has a great take on this issue. I’ll quote extensively:
Presidential contenders are hardly alone in such bleak views. An April Gallup poll found that only 26 percent of Americans call themselves “satisfied” with “the way things are going” in the United States. It’s been this way for a while: January 2004, during the George W. Bush administration, was the last time a majority told Gallup they felt good about the nation’s course.
Yet a glance out the window shows blue sky. There are troubling issues, including the horror of mass shootings, but most American social indicators have been positive at least for years, in many cases for decades. The country is, on the whole, in the best shape it’s ever been in. So what explains all the bad vibes?
Social media and cable news, which highlight scare stories and overstate anger, bear part of the blame. So does the long-running decline in respect for the clergy, the news media, the courts and other institutions. The Republican Party’s strange insistence on disparaging the United States doesn’t help, either.
But the core reason for the disconnect between the nation’s pretty-good condition and the gloomy conventional wisdom is that optimism itself has stopped being respectable. Pessimism is now the mainstream, with optimists viewed as Pollyannas. If you don’t think everything is awful, you don’t understand the situation!
Our problems are not as bad as we think:
Job growth has been strong for five years, with unemployment now below where it was for most of the 1990s, a period some extol as the “good old days.” The American economy is No. 1 by a huge margin, larger than Nos. 2 and 3 (China and Japan) combined. Americans are seven times as productive, per capita, as Chinese citizens. The dollar is the currency the world craves — which means other countries perceive America’s long-term prospects as very good.
Pollution, discrimination, crime and most diseases are in an extended decline; living standards, longevity and education levels continue to rise. The American military is not only the world’s strongest, it is the strongest ever. The United States leads the world in science and engineering, in business innovation, in every aspect of creativity, including the arts. Terrorism is a serious concern, but in the last 15 years, even taking into account Sept. 11, an American is five times more likely to be hit by lightning than to be killed by a terrorist.
It’s easy to forget the sentence bolded above, given the way the media covers terrorism. I think the idea that America’s problems are the next challenge to be solved is a good way to think about the future. Easterbrook continues:
Pessimists think in terms of rear-guard actions to turn back the clock. Optimists understand that where the nation has faults, it’s time to roll up our sleeves and get to work.
The lack of optimism in contemporary liberal and centrist thinking opens the door to Trump-style demagogy, since if the country really is going to hell, we do indeed need walls. And because optimism has lost its standing in American public opinion, past reforms — among them environmental protection, anti-discrimination initiatives, income security for seniors, auto and aviation safety, interconnected global economics, improved policing and yes, Obamacare — don’t get credit for the good they have accomplished.
This lack of optimism in our collective thinking and our politics is indeed a problem. Hopefully soon I can write more about this and the other questions.
center left in the west 