It’s been interesting to watch the conventional wisdom move around on this question. A few weeks ago, when Trump was struggling a bit, some observers thought it a certainty that the Republican convention would nominate someone else, possibly even non candidate like Romney or Ryan, if Trump were short of 1237.  Now many observers are taking the opposite view, that norms of democracy over the past 40 years in the nominating process mean that even if Trump is short on delegates, as the candidate with the most votes, failure to nominate him would be unacceptable.  A lot of very smart people that I respect are making this point, noting that a recent poll found that 62 percent of Republicans favor the “one with the most votes” over the “best party standard barer,” in the event that there is no delegate majority.

I am of the view the convention can indeed take it away from Trump but it depends in part on the total votes collected by the candidates.  First, just how many votes does Trump have?  I was surprised to find the following vote totals in millions: Trump 8.2 (39%), Cruz 6.3 (30%), Rubio 3.4 (16%), and Kasich 3.0 (14%).  (I figured Trump would be closer to 45 percent, certainly above 40, and that Kasich would have passed Rubio by now.)  Anyway, as long a Trump remains below 45 percent, I think there is a lot of room for the convention delegates to choose Cruz assuming he is closer to 40 percent than say 33 percent.

It seems to me a solid majority of Republicans could support the following: “With no candidate having won a majority of the delegates or votes during the nominating process, the Republican convention has just nominated Ted Cruz, who had won nearly 40 percent of the popular vote and had an identical position as Trump on the signature issue of immigration. Moreover, Mr. Cruz has been a loyal conservative Republican his entire life while Mr. Trump only recently solidified his commitment to most aspects of the Republican Agenda.”  I could see Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and the WSJ running with the above story.  And when they do, I believe way more than 62 percent of Republicans will will find the Cruz nomination to be reasonable and not some coup completely antithetical to democracy.

All that said, there are limits here.  If Trump moves above 45 percent and Cruz remains below 35 percent, the above scenario becomes more difficult, though still possible. I agree it’s highly unlikely the nomination goes to anyone else who hasn’t even received at least 20 percent of the primary votes or did not even run for President.  That would indeed seem like an undemocratic coup.

Of course all of these outcomes are terrible for the Republicans in terms of the November election.  A trump nomination would most likely end in a 55-45 Democrat landslide.  The Cruz nomination, especially assuming Trump did not endorse Cruz, would be just as bad.  In either case, many Republican voters would stay home, unable to vote for ultimate nominee because their primary choice was not on the ticket.

I’ll close with a question.  What are the chances that the Republican Party will ultimately unify?  Everyone assumes minimal, and I’m inclined to agree.  But could there be a Cruz/Trump, Trump/Cruz or Trump/Rubio ticket?  Will Trump endorse Cruz?  Would Cruz endorse Trump?  How many Republicans would endorse Trump?  I think disarray and acrimony are the most likely outcomes, with a real possibility of the acceptance speech of the nominee being partly booed on national television. But you cannot completely rule out the possibility of uniting to defeat HRC.