Conventional Wisdom (CW) has shifted a lot recently.  My thoughts have changed some as well and it’s hard to keep up.  I’ll post some current thinking here.  Just thoughts, certainly not wisdom from me.

CW has moved from Donald Trump is almost the inevitable nominee to DT is likely to lose the first ballot and has almost no chance on subsequent ballots to become the nominee.  This is in part based on CW that believes DT would go onto lose the general election to HRC in a landslide.  On the Dem side CW is perhaps moving to “since DT is such a disaster, maybe Bernie can win after all.” The CW vectors above are correct, but are more like probabilities than certainties with much margin for error.

DT always faced delegate issues at the convention if he failed to win the 1237.  (In a nutshell, delegates are only bound on the first ballot, and in fact DT delegates are mostly  party people who on a second ballot are quite likely to shift away.)  See Nate Silver and Josh Marshall for more on this. Given this obstacle, the CW should never have been so certain two weeks ago that DT would be the nominee.

I think Trump will indeed struggle at the convention if he does not get very close to the 1237.  He could get over the hump by offering “deals” or “attention” to uncommitted delegates.  But this only works if he is close. If he is more than 75 short, a second ballot is very likely and DT is unlikely to prevail.  Like Josh Marshall, I am skeptical that the subsequent ballots would go outside the actual candidates and select Paul Ryan.  While this could technically happen, both Cruz and Trump delegates would be booing his acceptance speech, symbolic of his problems in unifying the party in November.  I would rate HRC as slight favorite over PR.  I think it will be Cruz if not Trump. He has the second most delegates and he has worked the process (unlike Trump) so that his delegates are more loyal.  Kasich, as a standing candidate, has some chance to be a compromise nominee, but this is unlikely.  My guestimates:

Trump wins first ballot: 25%

If no Trump on first ballot, Cruz becomes the nominee on subsequent ballot: 75 percent

Kasish/Ryan/anyone else nomination on subsequent ballot: 25 percent

CW still thinks HRC wins the nomination, but is less dismissive of Bernie.  Some Dem friends of mine are thinking that Bernie’s recent dominance in caucuses and Wisconsin suggest lack of enthusiasm for HRC that will carry over as a drag into November.  I would point out that HRC leads Bernie 9.4 million to 6.9 million in actual votes cast in primaries. Bernie keeps it close in the earned delegate count by excelling in low turnout caucuses.  I think the lack of enthusiasm argument is overblown, but not insignificant.

The sooner that the Democrats unite the better.  When Bill Clinton, President Obama, Elizabeth Warren, Barnie Frank and others including Bernie himself unite on behalf of HRC, enthusiasm for defeating the frightening vision of Trump or Cruz will build.  All of this is not to suggest HRC is the perfect candidate. She is not a natural politician.  She has her baggage.  But she is tested.  And she and her husband are good political operatives who are well positioned to make the case for sustaining the Obama legacy rather than making an enormous change to Cruz/Trump domestic and foreign policy.  I remain skeptical of Bernie’s ability to put together a winning coalition.