Earlier this week I read an Ezra Klein piece entitled “Sanders, Trump, and Cruz all want dramatic changes to the US government. Clinton doesn’t.”  Klein focuses on their tax proposals, noting that Trump and Cruz would have to make major reductions in government spending in order to avoid increasing the deficit.  Bernie goes the opposite way, using higher taxes to pay for new initiatives such as higher education and single payer health coverage. Read the whole thing here:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/3/29/11323770/sanders-clinton-trump-cruz-tax-plans

What caught my eye was Klein’s use of a tax calculator from the Tax Policy Center for all 4 candidates.  He set the calculator for $100,000 in income and noted unsurprisingly that Cruz and Trump offer tax cuts of about $3,300 and $6,000 respectively, while Clinton barely increases taxes by $70.  Conversely, Bernie raises taxes by $14,000.  Whoa!

I figured Bernie would tax the 1 percent, and even the upper middle class, but a 14K increase for a family of four making $100,000 seemed kind of steep.  So I reduced the income to $50K, and still found a tax increase of $5,500.  Even at $30,000, Bernie raises taxes by over $3,000.  Wow!  (If you follow the above link, you can play with the nifty calculator.)

Now I’m sure Bernie’s tax increase is progressive; the rich would pay even more.  And I realize that under Bernie, some things like higher education would be free, so having less disposable income through higher taxes will in part be offset by government funded benefits to many citizens.

But tax increases on the middle class are very tough sell to the electorate, especially at these levels. Hate to sound like a grump talking down to young whippersnappers excited about Bernie, but I remember a Reagan campaign ad from 1984.  Walter Mondale had said that he would raise taxes to cut the budget deficit.  He added that Reagan would need to do the same, but just wasn’t being honest about it.  The ad showed a 30 to 40 something woman carrying a laundry basket. As she walked toward the camera, the voice over asked “How much more will you have to work to pay for Walter Mondale’s tax increase?”  She sort of frowned in response.  Reagan went on to beat Mondale in a 60-40 landslide

Okay, Reagan would have won anyway.  I don’t know how much Mondale’s tax increase played into the margin of victory.  But having a platform that raises taxes on ordinary families by thousands of dollars is not going to help the Democrats in beating Donald Trump. It is a major liability.  And just as I didn’t know about this level of tax increase, I expect most voters don’t know either.  This is what I mean about Clinton’s negatives being “priced in” to her polls, while Bernie’s negatives (because they haven’t been publicized) are not.  And remember, this would be a “fair” ad based on substantive policy difference between Bernie and Donald.  There will be other worse ads along the lines of “Bernie is  socialist, Stalin is a socialist, Bernie will turn America into a stalinist disaster.”

I’m not saying that center-left politicians should always shy away from tax increases, including increases on the middle class.  But Bernie’s taxes are way out of my comfort zone for an effective political campaign against Donald Trump or Ted Cruz.