I’ve been wresting with two related issues and haven’t yet hat time to get my thoughts down. 1) How likely is Trump to win a general election? 2) And if you believe the chance is low, though not impossible, is it fair or appropriate to root for his success in primary process as it brings a wrecking ball to the Republicans? My tentative answers are: 1) low (less than 20 percent likelihood), and 2) maybe not.
Isaac Chotiner has a very good piece on these issues in Slate. I will quote extensively:
Trump is the least electable Republican presidential candidate in a generation, a sinister demagogue who would almost certainly lose to Hillary Clinton in November. But Trump’s demagoguery also frightens liberals, and many centrists: His success has revealed an ugly side of America, full of prejudice, suspicion, and hate, all of it terrifyingly on display Friday night at his canceled rally in Chicago.
And yet, as the campaign has worn on and Trump has emerged as the leader in the delegate count, another liberal reaction to his rise has emerged: schadenfreude. Trump’s nomination could very well lead to the collapse of the Republican Party, which many liberals view as an increasingly debased institution that deserves not merely to lose elections but to be permanently vanquished. Even more satisfying to liberal rubberneckers is the idea that the Republicans have been the architects of their own demise—that this is a classic case of chickens coming home to roost. A party that for decades fomented and benefited from racial resentment is now seeing its political future potentially collapse thanks to the very forces it nurtured.
Even the conservatives who have stood up to Trump and attempted to slow his march to the nomination were, in the past, Trump enablers. Mitt Romney made nice with Trump out of political expedience well after the latter’s “birther” attacks on Obama. William Kristol remains a steadfast admirer of the Bush administration’s policies on “enhanced interrogation techniques,” which Trump has been criticized for supporting under their proper name, torture. They are both fine examples of a party that long ago lost its soul in the process of losing its way.
Haven’t these men earned this comeuppance for their hypocrisy—and is this not a moment for liberals to rejoice in the karmic justice of it all? Certainly the GOP and its supporters deserve to be called out for the party’s often ugly past and for setting the stage for Trump.
I have to admit that up to now I’ve been answering that bold question with a yes. Chotiner continues that “rooting for Trump is playing with fire.” And I agree Trump’s rhetoric against muslims and immigrants is not just inflammatory, it’s hateful and potentially insightful of violence. The difference between Trump and Cruz/Rubio is much more about rhetoric and style than actual policy (I’ll get to policy difference in another post). But hateful rhetoric does matter.
Even more chilling, as Josh Marshall points out, Trump actually said “We’re going to make this country great again. It’s payback time.” Per Marshall, this is politics framed as betrayal and revenge. If I’m a little chilled (frightened, scared?) of Trump, imagine how a citizen child of undocumented parents might feel about him. Chotiner goes on:
Even if you despise the Republican Party and what it stands for, Trump is a different beast. His violent rhetoric, which seems to have infected everyone from his ardent supporters (who have turned his rallies into spectacles and, increasingly, melees) to his campaign manager (who is accused of assaulting a reporter), is uniquely frightening. He must be defeated at all costs.
For Chotiner, I think at all costs means that liberals and Democrats must join now in defeating him, not leaving it up to the Republicans to police themselves. I’m moving in Chotiner’s direction, but not quite there yet. That said, his rhetoric should be condemned by all. And in fact, that’s one of the most annoying aspects of Republican criticism of Trump. Even when they condemn him, they still say they will support him if he is the nominee. #neverTrump is a Republican fraud.
So much more to think about and digest here. What is the degree of difference between Trump and his Republican opponents in terms of actual governance if elected? How limited are Trumps chances in the general election? More to come from me.
center left in the west 