So last night was medium Tuesday with R contests in Michigan, Mississippi, ID, and HI (Dems in MI and MS only).  I have no real insights beyond what others are saying at Fivethirtyeight, VOX and the NYT.  That said, here’s my current thinking.

On the Republican race, Trump won 3 of 4 contests and picked up 71 delegates.  In his loss in ID, received 28 percent of the vote; in the winning states, he received 37 percent to 47 percent.  These are nice pluralities  (in all but ID) that gave him 49 percent of the delegates.  In the future, more states have winner take all or winner take most rules where pluralities could lead to significantly greater delegate shares.  Bottom line, Trump continues to do very well.  It’s hard to see anyone catching him or even a contested convention.  We won’t know for sure until Rubio drops out and Kasich’s one likely win in Ohio is in the rear view mirror.  In other words, when it’s down to Trump, Cruz and Kasich (the likely case after March 16), will Trump continue to win in this narrower field?  I think he will.  And pluralities are all he needs.

On the Democrat side, Sanders’ surprise win in MI gives him some momentum that is likely to keep the race going for at least another month or two, but Clinton still remains the heavy favorite.  At VOX, Dylan Mathews says it well, although Sanders is in a worse position today than Clinton was in 2008 compared to Obama.   Mathews:

It’s important not to overstate Clinton’s woes. Before tonight, she was nearly 200 pledged delegates ahead of Sanders, with over 58 percent of those allocated to date. She is absolutely demolishing him with superdelegates. She’s winning the popular vote. She’ll net more delegates tonight. She’ll probably win the nomination….But tonight still suggests it could be a long slog à la 2008, with Clinton playing Obama and Sanders playing ’08 Clinton. The losing candidate is winning just often enough to keep raising money and motivating volunteers. As long as that’s happening, Clinton can’t pivot to the general election, no matter how faint Sanders’s chances eventually get.

While Trump and Clinton remain heavy favorites, two factors worth watching are: (1) open vs. closed primaries (Cruz does better in closed) and (2) as the race moves away from the south, do Clinton’s numbers vis-a-vis different demographic groups remain steady.