Mrs. Center Left and I just watched John Oliver’s twenty minute takedown of Donald Drumpf.  It demonstrates he is a serial lier, thin skinned, and possessing a very questionable business record.  All this and more will be real liabilities in the general election this fall.  But what drives his popularity with Republican voters?  And should we fear him more than the rest of the Republican field?  I will be thinking about these questions  for several months.  Here are some thoughts tonight.

Much of Trumps’ appeal derives from the overblown irresponsible rhetoric of the Republican Party.  Jonathan Chait argues well that “Trump Doesn’t Represent Conservatism, But Does Represent Conservatives.”  Chait’s first paragraph:

Donald Trump’s rise to Republican presidential front-runner has surprised nearly everybody. Watching last year as Trump exploded onto the scene, some liberals quickly concluded that his mastery of right-wing populist currents could easily win him the nomination. Others (like me) believed the forces of the party Establishment would likely crush him, whatever his authentic appeal to the rank and file. What neither camp missed was that Trump’s nativist, authoritarian, anti-intellectual style was something the Republican electorate craved.

Like Chait, I believed that other Republicans would stop him. But it turns out they faced a collective action problem, whereby as a group, it would be good to attack him, but individually, it made sense to hold back and let others do the dirty work.  Now I think it’s too late.  Chait closes with the following and I agree 100 percent.

When figures like George W. Bush and Sarah Palin brushed aside detailed policy critiques as the picayune obsessions of Washington insiders, Republicans cheered their vapid anti-intellectualism as the righteous populist folk wisdom. It has been a bracing experience for conservative elites to behold when the forces they have successfully harnessed for so long shake free and turn against them. Conservatives are right that Trump does not represent their ideas perfectly, or even very well. What he represents instead is the actual constituency for those ideas.

Let me turn briefly to my second question, should Trumps’ candidacy be feared by liberals and center left thinkers?  Kevin Drum says yes:

A few of my fellow liberals have been suggesting lately that they’d prefer Donald Trump as president to, say, Marco Rubio. Mostly this is for two reasons. First, they figure Trump will be easier to beat. Second, if he does win, Trump’s volatile personality and tenuous relationship to ideology suggest that he might be surprisingly flexible in office. Rubio, by contrast, is a stone ideologue who would appoint hundreds of fellow ideologues to office. He’d make a real effort to do every horrible thing he says he’s going to do. This is an enticing argument, but it’s also dangerous.

I agree it’s dangerous, but not as dangerous as Marco Rubio with a Republican Congress and Supreme Court.  I’m not saying Trump can’t win.  He could win, especially if there is a recession. But Trump brings a lot of exploitable baggage into campaign.  I expect him to be defeated.  However, if he did prevail he would be better in terms of policy (with the exception of immigration) than his Republican rivals.  His tax cut would be less regressive, his foreign policy more dovish, and he does not favor reductions in Social Security or Medicare. He has not said he will tear up the Iran deal his first day in office.

I recognize that it’s very scary to vest someone of his uneven temperament with power of the U.S. presidency. Despite this scare, he is actually more moderate than the rest of the Republican field.   I’m not saying there is no risk in Trump. I’m just saying it’s not much riskier than the likely outcomes associated with another Republican.  And he will be easier to defeat.  I will continue to assess the relative risks of Trump in future posts.