Like many others, I believe Hillary and Trump will win big tomorrow.  When Christie endorsed Trump my gut feeling moved from “Trump is the front runner but others may still catch him” to “Trump is the likely nominee.”  I will be surprised if he does not capture the nomination this year.

Hillary’s extra strong performance in South Carolina suggests she will dominate in most diverse states.  According to Nate Silver, with demographic adjustments, Bernie should have been even stronger in Iowa and New Hampshire than his actual vote totals.  In fact, he underperformed in those states (a tie and a 20 point win) relative to Nevada (where he lost by 6 percent).  With proportional delegate allocations being the norm, it will take Hillary several months to actually clinch the nomination.  But after Tuesday she will have a big lead in delegates and will never look back.