First condolences to his family and friends.  Though I usually disagreed with his reasoning, Scalia was a brilliant man who cared deeply about policy and this country.  Josh Marshall has a few good pieces about Scalia and does a better job than I of recognizing his importance.

In terms of politics, I think Scalia’s vacancy on the court provides several advantages for progressives. First, until a successor is confirmed, there is one less very conservative vote on a divided SCOTUS.  A 4-4 decision means the lower court ruling stands.  The short term impact will depend a lot on how those lower court decisions are framed, and I’ll be looking for a good summary of that.

Second, the vacancy elevates the importance of the Supreme Court and the power of the President to appoint the federal judiciary, subject to Senate confirmation, in terms of the 2016 campaign.  I think this helps the Democrats because some voters take the view that there is no difference between the two parties.  Some very liberal voters felt this way in 2000 and voted for Nader.  You could see the same thing happening again if Bernie loses the nomination, and some of his supporters decide there is no real difference between Hillary and the Republican nominee.  I think this type of defection is very small, but could matter in a close election. The elevated SCOTUS issue mitigates this problem.

Third, this vacancy gives President Obama an opportunity to put forward an outstanding nominee.  While I expect Republicans in the Senate to push back, the Republicans will pay a small political price for this obstruction. Generally, there is little political downside to Congressional obfuscation, but refusing to act at all looks irresponsible and petty.  Not a huge impact, but a small positive for the Democrats.

Finally, if Obama nominates a highly qualified woman or racial minority, the refusal to confirm, or worse yet, the refusal to even hold hearings, might deeply motivate key elements of the Democratic base.

None of the political impacts noted above are large, but in a close election they could matter. While the magnitude is small, the vector of this issue is in the Democrats’ favor.