I support Hillary over Bernie.
- She is a stronger general election candidate. All of her negatives are priced into her favorability levels, which frankly aren’t that great, but should be sufficient to defeat her Republican opponent. I’m much less certain about how Bernie will hold up as a newcomer in a nasty battle with the Republicans. Bernie’s favorability ratings have a lot of room to move down when attack ads commence.
- With the House certain to stay in Republican hands, her executive branch experience will be the key to defending the core achievements of the Obama Administration, making incremental progress in Congress, and adopting regulations.
Ezra Klein has an excellent piece entitled Hillary Clinton And The Audacity of Political Realism.
http://www.vox.com/2016/1/28/10858464/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-political-realism
I very much agree with his argument that Hillary offers incremental pragmatism and why that’s the vision for today’s environment. From Klein:
This is Hillary Clinton’s political philosophy in a nutshell. It is the hard-won lessons of a politician who had a front-row seat to both Bill Clinton’s impeachment and Barack Obama’s release of his longform birth certificate. It’s the conclusion of someone who has tried to win change amidst Democratic and Republican Congresses, who has worked out of the White House and out of the Capitol, who has watched disagreement and polarization prove intractable, who has seen grand plans die amidst gridlock.
Clinton’s theory of change is probably analytically correct, and it’s well-suited to a world in which Republicans will almost certainly continue to control the House, and so a Democratic president will have to grind out victories of compromise in Congress and of bureaucratic mastery through executive action.
Klein contrasts this with Bernie’s views:
The difference between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders’s visions of politics is simple, and it is stark. Hillary Clinton doesn’t believe you can change hearts. Bernie Sanders doesn’t believe you need to change hearts.
In Sanders’s view, there’s something akin to a populist silent majority lurking in America — a majority that already agrees with liberals but that’s been alienated by Democrats who give in to wealthy interests and compromise their principles.
I’m extremely skeptical of Bernie’s “silent majority of liberals.” I’m equally skeptical of how he will achieve “political revolution” to get his program enacted despite a Republican Congress. Klein also has good links to pieces by Paul Krugman and Jonathan Chait.
Bottom line, Hillary’s skills and vision are a better fit for this time. Moreover, because she is battle tested, she is a stronger general election candidate. Electing a Democratic President is critical for maintaining current law and policy against a Republican Congress and for controlling appointments to the federal judiciary.
All of the above was on my mind today before this evening’s debate and separate Trump event. I only caught a bit of the opening during my drive home and some of the end. I agree with Josh Marshall’s piece today arguing that Trump’s decision to skip the debate is risky, but may pay off in once again demonstrating to his supporters that he is a winner and that he sets the rules. We’ll know more on Monday.