In a nutshell, I think Trump is a better general election candidate for the Republicans than Cruz.

Trump.  He is a buffoon, an insensitive jerk, a showman, but ideologically flexible.  He has a good sense of what downscale (non college-educated) white Republican voters want to hear.  He appears to have mastered twitter (I don’t even have an account.)  Like Palin, he appeals to voters who feel aggrieved (perhaps a future post about the aggrieved).  If he were to become the Republican nominee, his goal would be to win.  Being a winner is big part of his schtick, appealing to losers by saying they can win with him.  (An interesting question is how he will keep that argument going if he finishes 2nd in Iowa, but that is a separate issue.) Upon winning the nomination, he can change his message and move toward the center, certainly more so than Cruz.  He would have some cross over appeal in a general election to the relatively small set of downscale whites who still vote for Democrats at the federal level.  All that said, Trump would be a weak Republican nominee.  He has done his best to offend every element of the Obama coalition of minorities and college-educated whites.  That coalition, barring an economic downturn, should best Trump.  Although certainly no more than a 30 percent probability, I can imagine Trump winning the general election. I cannot imagine the same for Cruz.

Cruz.  Cruz would be an even worse nominee for the Republicans.  He is an Ivy League educated ideologue.  He cares much more about being faithful to his conservative principles than being loved or liked by voters or colleagues.  (As many others have documented, he is despised by his follow Republican senators.)  His hardline conservative positions are indelible.  He would have little ability, and absolutely zero interest, in tacking toward the middle for purposes of winning the general election.  Put another way, he would prefer losing to compromising his principles.  I see his ceiling in the general election at no better than 45 percent.

Trump is the exact opposite.  Winning is his only goal.  He has no principles, so compromise and message changing would come naturally.  For these reasons, Trump is the better General election candidate.  That said, Trump would be significantly weaker than any of the candidates in the “establishment” lane (Rubio, Cruz, Kasich and Christie).