My cousin G posted a link to a prediction quiz on his FB page.  Since I made some predictions there, thought I would put them here as well with some explanation.

Republican Nominee for President:  Ted Cruz.  Right now I’m torn between Rubio, as the likely “establishment” pick once the field starts to narrow and Ted Cruz.  I’m not ruling out Trump, but I think he has a ceiling below 50 percent among republicans, perhaps lower than that, and is unlikely to win enough delegates to secure the nomination.  As Nate Silver would argue, the party knows that Trump is a terrible general election candidate and the party powers that be will do what they can to unite behind another.  The narrowing should of the field should eventually create an effective alternative to Trump.  Right now, I think that might be Cruz, but it could easily be Rubio.  Matt Yglesias has made a similar point.

Democratic Nominee: Hillary Clinton.  Sanders has done better than I expected, but I think party demographics, endorsements, and money will mean Hillary prevails, even if Sanders scores some early wins.

Next POTUS: Hillary Clinton.  I see this as continuity rather than a “change” election. Of course I felt that way in 2000.  Assuming the economy stays okay, Hillary and her political team will make a compelling case for sticking with current policy Agenda.  Trump and the overblown rhetoric of many Republican candidates will make it hard for the ultimate R nominee to appeal to the relatively small center of the electorate.  I think Jonathan Chait has made this argument already.  Of course once Nate Silver puts together a model, probably by mid-summer, we’ll all have a better idea of who is going to win.

Superbowl L: Carolina over New England

DJIA on December 31, 2016:  16K to 18K (this was the choice I made on G’s multiple choice quiz)